China’s Crude Imports Slump to Eight-Year Lows

The current daily intake represents a sharp departure from the 7.82 million barrels recorded in May, which was already down 29% compared to the previous year. The divergence from February levels has widened to a deficit of 4 million barrels per day, fueling debate over whether Chinese consumption has entered a period of structural decline rather than a temporary lull.

Energy analysts are divided on the outlook. Rystad Energy estimates that China faces permanent demand destruction of up to 600,000 barrels daily, while Energy Aspects projects a lasting loss of 300,000 barrels per day. FGE NexantECA remains even more bearish, anticipating a quarterly drop in imports of 3.3 million barrels daily. Conversely, some market observers maintain that Beijing will eventually leverage lower prices to replenish its massive 1-billion-barrel strategic stockpile, potentially stabilizing global markets that have recently been pressured by fluctuating tanker traffic and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.