ING Trims Precious Metals Forecasts Amid Dollar and Yield Surge

ING commodity analyst Ewa Manthey notes that the current market selloff stems from a pivot toward tighter financial conditions. With the U.S. Dollar Index climbing to 101.69—its highest point since May 2025—investors are increasingly wary of holding non-yielding assets. While gold prices have slipped below $4,000 an ounce, ING now projects averages of $4,300 and $4,600 for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively. These figures represent a notable reduction from previous estimates of $4,850 and $5,000.

Silver faces a similar adjustment, with expectations lowered to $68 and $74 per ounce for the remainder of the year. Beyond macroeconomic pressures, the silver market is encountering shifts in industrial demand. Growth in solar manufacturing is decelerating, while efforts to reduce silver intensity per panel are tempering the metal’s industrial tailwinds. Despite these obstacles, ING maintains that the long-term structural case for both metals remains intact, supported by central bank reserve diversification and persistent geopolitical risks. For now, however, the bank warns that elevated yields will likely continue to suppress investor appetite, leading to a slower and more volatile path to recovery.