US Leading Economic Index Gains for Second Consecutive Month

Financial market components, specifically stock prices and the interest rate spread, provided the primary momentum for the index's recent rise. Outside of these financial metrics, the ISM New Orders Index offered modest strength, though consumer expectations continue to weigh heavily on the broader outlook. According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, households are currently feeling the strain of rising energy and fuel costs, which are outpacing income growth and curbing discretionary spending.

While consumers pull back, corporate investment in AI, data centers, and advanced technology remains a vital pillar of the economy. The firm now projects 1.8% year-over-year GDP growth for 2026, a decline from the 2.1% recorded in 2025. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index, which reflects current conditions, rose 0.2% in May, showing broad-based growth across all four of its constituent indicators including payroll employment and industrial production.