Wall Street Slashes Oil Forecasts as Iran-U.S. Deal Looms

Morgan Stanley led the retreat, lowering its third-quarter forecast to $90 per barrel from a previous estimate of $100. Analysts at the firm expect a rapid normalization of tanker traffic once the agreement, scheduled for signing this Friday in Switzerland, takes effect. Goldman Sachs followed suit, trimming its fourth-quarter outlook by $10 to $80 per barrel and dropping its 2027 average projection to $75.

Citi remains the most pessimistic among the major financial institutions, forecasting Brent to slide to $70 per barrel by the end of this year and averaging just $65 throughout 2027. Market reaction has been swift, with Brent crude falling below $90 earlier this week and trading at $82.51, while WTI hovered near $80.23. The deal mandates the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, a move expected to remove the risk premium that has buoyed energy markets for months.