Gold and Silver Climb as Soft Retail Data Cools Fed Hike Bets

Spot gold is currently trading near $4,373.50 an ounce, a 0.53% gain, while spot silver sits at $64.530, up 0.32%. The shift in sentiment is driven by a softer U.S. dollar and a cooling economic outlook, though the broader market remains caught between signs of slowing growth and persistent energy-driven inflation. While the retail-sales miss and earlier cooling CPI and PPI reports have pressured rate-hike odds, Treasury yields remain elevated near 4.7% due to volatility in the crude oil market.

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to act as a floor for inflation expectations. With talks between Washington and Tehran stalled and recent attacks on shipping vessels, Brent crude remains near $88 a barrel. This energy-supply risk forces a tug-of-war for gold: the metal is buoyed by a weaker dollar and cooling growth, yet capped by the inflation premium tied to restricted Gulf shipping. Traders are now shifting their focus toward upcoming August employment and inflation reports, which will serve as the final indicators for the Federal Reserve’s next move.